Analysing China-Russia relations

China-Russia trade and technology exchanges enable the Kremlin's war of aggression against Ukraine. But Beijing and Moscow are not fully aligned. What to make of the relations? And what are the implications for EU policy?

China has never expressed its explicit support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. However, it continues to empower the Russian Federation by providing it with indispensable resources as well as diplomatic support for actions which threaten the European security order.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia are far from fully aligned; their friendship is not ‘unlimited’, as they proclaimed in early 2022. However, driving a wedge between them is virtually impossible because they are united in their opposition to US power and the influence of democracy. Instead of attempting to prise Russia and China apart, the EU should strive to influence the PRC so that it freezes or reduces its support for Russia.

This has become more difficult after the United States’ policy reversal under President Trump. But China adopts an interest-driven approach, balancing a range of domestic and international strategic priorities. Evidence from my recent research indicates that China responds to pressure. This creates an opportunity for the EU to increase (1) the economic and diplomatic price that the PRC needs to pay for its support of Russia. Reducing China’s support is in the EU’s interest, regardless of whether a ceasefire takes hold or not and no matter how the US positions itself.

These findings are part of a broader flagship project of the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) called "Unpowering Russia". In a comprehensive report, my colleagues analyse how the EU could weaken Russian influence through its interactions with third actors or in specific thematic areas. I had the privilege to contribute a chapter on China.

You can find the full report here.

In the coming weeks, I will also co-publish with Alessia Caruso an online story, in which we explore Russia-China relations through data tracing trends in terms of economic interaction, supply of military and dual-use goods as well as diplomatic support in the UN. Stay tuned.